Closing spread
BUF -10.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+7.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.056
- 39.2%Success rate44.9%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.076
- -0.131EPA / rush+0.028
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.0%
- -1.42CPOE+0.94
- 36.2%Third-down rate41.7%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.37Points / drive2.08
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 17/28 | 196 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Danny Vitale | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/24 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 153 | 8.1 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Gillislee | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 7 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.91