2016 · Week 15

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Robert Griffin

13·33

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 26°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BUF -10.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+7.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBills
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.056
  • 39.2%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.076
  • -0.131EPA / rush+0.028
  • 9.2%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -1.42CPOE+0.94
  • 36.2%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.08
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF
2009 · W5CLE @ BUF6–3CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BUF
CLEQ1 15:0042Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:20644Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 10:141260Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 3:50874Punt3–10
CLEQ2 15:0034Punt3–10
BUFQ2 12:34616Punt3–10
CLEQ2 9:4536Punt3–10
BUFQ2 8:0314101Touchdown3–17
CLEQ2 0:34418End of half3–17
BUFQ3 15:00518Punt3–17
CLEQ3 12:52975Touchdown10–17
BUFQ3 8:58660Touchdown10–24
CLEQ3 5:50842Field goal13–24
BUFQ3 1:32875Touchdown13–30
CLEQ4 12:383-9Punt13–30
BUFQ4 11:21634Field goal13–33
CLEQ4 7:213-1Punt13–33
BUFQ4 6:00829Turnover on downs13–33
CLEQ4 2:05972End of half13–33

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III17/2819600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Griffin III8486.01
Duke Johnson5316.20
Isaiah Crowell8283.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson57620
Gary Barnidge23350
Andrew Hawkins11330
Corey Coleman34240
Terrelle Pryor48190
Danny Vitale11170
Seth DeValve1160
Isaiah Crowell0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor17/2417410
EJ Manuel0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy191538.12
Tyrod Taylor7497.00
Mike Gillislee9374.11
Brandon Tate13030.00
Jonathan Williams3103.30
EJ Manuel111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay77721
Marquise Goodwin34430
LeSean McCoy33160
Justin Hunter13160
Sammy Watkins14100
Robert Woods1250
Nick O'Leary0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.10
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.91