2012 · Week 3

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

24·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.007EPA / play-0.068
  • 42.3%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.066
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.57CPOE-4.22
  • 39.8%Third-down rate30.6%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.48
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF
2009 · W5CLE @ BUF6–3CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:25863Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 9:0434Punt7–0
BUFQ1 6:59449Touchdown14–0
CLEQ1 5:0639Punt14–0
BUFQ1 3:051253Turnover14–0
CLEQ2 12:14536Punt14–0
BUFQ2 9:47519Punt14–0
CLEQ2 6:531062Touchdown14–7
BUFQ2 2:12829Punt14–7
CLEQ2 0:5836Punt14–7
BUFQ2 0:2000End of half14–7
BUFQ3 15:00939Field goal17–7
CLEQ3 10:38613Punt17–7
BUFQ3 7:5537Punt17–7
CLEQ3 7:051380Touchdown17–14
BUFQ3 2:2731Punt17–14
CLEQ3 1:2150Punt17–14
BUFQ4 14:351068Touchdown24–14
CLEQ4 9:08721Punt24–14
BUFQ4 6:0339Punt24–14
CLEQ4 4:592-10Turnover24–14
BUFQ4 4:2139Punt24–14
CLEQ4 2:37319Turnover24–14
BUFQ4 1:5000End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/3520830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tashard Choice20914.50
C.J. Spiller4164.00
Johnny White2157.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick6101.70
Brad Smith263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson711611
Donald Jones56420
C.J. Spiller22421
Trevor Graham35241
Scott Chandler24220
Tashard Choice2580

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden27/4323712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson12272.31
Chris Ogbonnaya166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Cameron57450
Travis Benjamin24441
Josh Gordon36400
Josh Cribbs11240
Trent Richardson67240
Greg Little24170
Benjamin Watson48150
Mohamed Massaquoi13140
Chris Ogbonnaya33140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.30