Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.068
- 42.3%Success rate39.6%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.066
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.57CPOE-4.22
- 39.8%Third-down rate30.6%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.58Points / drive1.48
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/35 | 208 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 20 | 91 | 4.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 7 | 11 | 61 | 1 |
| Donald Jones | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Trevor Graham | 3 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 27/43 | 237 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Cameron | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 6 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30