Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.106
- 40.5%Success rate40.1%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.132
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.13CPOE-1.94
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.1%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.49
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 12/20 | 86 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 21 | 108 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 14/23 | 142 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 29 | 112 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stupar | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.13
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.76