2010 · Week 14

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jake Delhomme

6·13

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 36°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBills
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.106
  • 40.5%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.132
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +2.13CPOE-1.94
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.49
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2009 · W5CLE @ BUF6–3CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BUF
CLEQ1 15:00854Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 10:1168Turnover3–0
CLEQ1 7:0115Turnover3–0
BUFQ1 6:52634Turnover on downs3–0
CLEQ1 4:1133Punt3–0
BUFQ1 2:421484Touchdown3–7
CLEQ2 9:281073Field goal6–7
BUFQ2 3:52863Field goal6–10
CLEQ2 0:1422End of half6–10
BUFQ3 15:00621Punt6–10
CLEQ3 11:17518Punt6–10
BUFQ3 8:56732Punt6–10
CLEQ3 4:30920Punt6–10
BUFQ4 14:1331Punt6–10
CLEQ4 12:3733Turnover6–10
BUFQ4 11:03522Field goal6–13
CLEQ4 7:5637Punt6–13
BUFQ4 6:2137Punt6–13
CLEQ4 4:3732Turnover6–13
BUFQ4 3:51951End of half6–13

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme12/208601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis211085.10
Mike Bell382.70
Josh Cribbs1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi36430
Brian Robiskie23170
Peyton Hillis45100
Benjamin Watson1180
Josh Cribbs1170
Chansi Stuckey1310
Robert Royal0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick14/2314210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson291123.90
Ryan Fitzpatrick44912.30
C.J. Spiller8334.10
Donald Jones1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonathan Stupar33450
Steve Johnson58420
Donald Jones23140
David Martin11130
David Nelson11111
Fred Jackson1430
Lee Evans0100
Scott Chandler0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.13
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.76