2009 · Week 5

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Derek Anderson

6·3

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 47°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BUF -6

Total

41.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBills
  • -0.168EPA / play-0.125
  • 35.2%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.266EPA / dropback-0.122
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.129
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -10.33CPOE-1.89
  • 32.5%Third-down rate26.3%
  • 42.9%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.20
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BUF
CLEQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:11420Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:56519Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:07528Punt0–0
CLEQ1 4:1931Punt0–0
BUFQ1 2:47620Turnover on downs0–0
CLEQ1 0:20516Punt0–0
BUFQ2 12:4734Punt0–0
CLEQ2 10:52742Field goal3–0
BUFQ2 7:231557Turnover on downs3–0
CLEQ2 1:32614End of half3–0
BUFQ3 15:00961Field goal3–3
CLEQ3 10:10521Punt3–3
BUFQ3 8:05620Punt3–3
CLEQ3 4:3221Turnover3–3
BUFQ3 3:41510Turnover3–3
CLEQ3 1:5537Punt3–3
BUFQ4 15:0039Punt3–3
CLEQ4 13:4937Punt3–3
BUFQ4 12:1539Punt3–3
CLEQ4 10:48723Punt3–3
BUFQ4 7:13829Punt3–3
CLEQ4 4:0537Punt3–3
CLEQ4 2:59615Field goal6–3
BUFQ4 0:23321Turnover6–3

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson2/172301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis311173.80
Josh Cribbs13131.00
Jerome Harrison8212.60
Derek Anderson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi16160
Steve Heiden1170
Mike Furrey0100
Robert Royal0200
Josh Cribbs0200
Jerome Harrison0200
Chansi Stuckey0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards16/3115201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch17694.10
Trent Edwards44010.00
Fred Jackson13302.30
Terrell Owens166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marshawn Lynch67560
Terrell Owens47440
Fred Jackson23170
Lee Evans25110
Derek Fine1380
Josh Reed0200
Shawn Nelson1400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.60
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.41