Closing spread
BUF -6
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.168EPA / play-0.125
- 35.2%Success rate38.0%
- -0.266EPA / dropback-0.122
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -10.33CPOE-1.89
- 32.5%Third-down rate26.3%
- 42.9%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 1.23Points / drive1.20
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 2/17 | 23 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 31 | 117 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Furrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 16/31 | 152 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Derek Fine | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.60
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.41