2014 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

10·26

Bills

Buffalo

QB Kyle Orton

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 57°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BUF -3

Total

42

Model margin

+4.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBills
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.076
  • 38.1%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.158
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -7.11CPOE-1.80
  • 29.9%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 49.1%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.48
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF
2009 · W5CLE @ BUF6–3CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BUF
CLEQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:27417Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:541486Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 4:5154Punt3–0
CLEQ1 3:1633Punt3–0
BUFQ1 1:44755Turnover3–0
CLEQ2 12:591471Missed field goal3–0
BUFQ2 7:2439Punt3–0
CLEQ2 5:1330Punt3–0
BUFQ2 3:344-5Punt3–0
CLEQ2 1:46411Turnover3–0
BUFQ2 1:02411Missed field goal3–0
BUFQ3 15:0035Turnover3–0
CLEQ3 14:193-8Punt3–0
BUFQ3 12:13979Touchdown3–7
CLEQ3 8:041-2Opp touchdown3–14
CLEQ3 7:5434Punt3–14
BUFQ3 6:18520Punt3–14
CLEQ3 3:37414Punt3–14
BUFQ3 1:42517Field goal3–17
CLEQ4 13:4129Turnover3–17
BUFQ4 12:5935Field goal3–20
CLEQ4 12:01880Touchdown10–20
BUFQ4 8:47964Field goal10–23
CLEQ4 3:3249Turnover on downs10–23
BUFQ4 2:4336Field goal10–26
CLEQ4 0:27118End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer18/3019202
Johnny Manziel5/86300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West7324.60
Isaiah Crowell17291.70
Johnny Manziel2136.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin79860
Josh Gordon713750
Jim Dray34450
Andrew Hawkins23240
Isaiah Crowell12150
Gary Barnidge1160
Terrance West1140
Travis Benjamin0200
Ray Agnew1100
Taylor Gabriel0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton17/3119012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson21703.30
Anthony Dixon6254.20
Bryce Brown3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
MarQueis Gray22710
Robert Woods47710
Fred Jackson34270
Sammy Watkins39110
Chris Hogan2481
Scott Chandler3320
Marquise Goodwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.01