Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
42
Model margin
+4.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.076
- 38.1%Success rate41.0%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.158
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- -7.11CPOE-1.80
- 29.9%Third-down rate37.3%
- 49.1%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 1.44Points / drive1.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 18/30 | 192 | 0 | 2 |
| Johnny Manziel | 5/8 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 17 | 29 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Johnny Manziel | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 7 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 7 | 13 | 75 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Agnew | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 17/31 | 190 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarQueis Gray | 2 | 2 | 71 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.01