Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.111
- 44.1%Success rate49.0%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.203
- +0.002EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.05CPOE+0.35
- 39.0%Third-down rate51.1%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.91Points / drive2.48
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 28/41 | 324 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 14 | 19 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 12 | 113 | 2 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 5 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| David Bell | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/27 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 1 |
| James Cook | 11 | 86 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 7 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.18