2022 · Week 11

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jacoby Brissett

23·31

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBills
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.111
  • 44.1%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.203
  • +0.002EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.05CPOE+0.35
  • 39.0%Third-down rate51.1%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.48
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2013 · W5BUF @ CLE24–37CLE
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF
2009 · W5CLE @ BUF6–3CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BUF
CLEQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 9:0237Punt7–0
CLEQ1 7:25412Punt7–0
BUFQ1 5:1638Field goal7–3
CLEQ1 3:32851Field goal10–3
BUFQ2 14:053-3Punt10–3
CLEQ2 11:49843Turnover10–3
BUFQ2 8:171144Field goal10–6
CLEQ2 4:54630Punt10–6
BUFQ2 1:541178Touchdown10–13
CLEQ2 0:1400End of half10–13
BUFQ3 15:00846Field goal10–16
CLEQ3 9:42928Turnover on downs10–16
BUFQ3 5:49458Touchdown10–22
CLEQ3 4:08628Missed field goal10–22
BUFQ3 1:37645Field goal10–25
CLEQ4 13:203-7Punt10–25
BUFQ4 11:53854Field goal10–28
CLEQ4 6:451070Touchdown16–28
BUFQ4 4:11621Field goal16–31
CLEQ4 1:561067Touchdown23–31
BUFQ4 0:1900End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett28/4132430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt5326.40
Jacoby Brissett7294.10
Nick Chubb14191.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper8121132
Donovan Peoples-Jones56611
Nick Chubb33480
Harrison Bryant47410
Kareem Hunt22220
David Bell45220
David Njoku23170
Pharaoh Brown0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen18/2719710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary18864.81
James Cook11867.80
Josh Allen372.30
Nyheim Hines1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox77700
Gabe Davis57680
Stefon Diggs45481
Devin Singletary22110
Isaiah McKenzie0100
Nyheim Hines0100
James Cook0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.18