2013 · Week 5

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

24·37

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CLE -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.075
  • 39.7%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.107EPA / dropback-0.074
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -3.82CPOE-3.79
  • 33.7%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.27
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 7–5 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16BUF @ CLE23–20BUF
2022 · W11CLE @ BUF23–31BUF
2019 · W10BUF @ CLE16–19CLE
2016 · W15CLE @ BUF13–33BUF
2014 · W13CLE @ BUF10–26BUF
2012 · W3BUF @ CLE24–14BUF
2010 · W14CLE @ BUF6–13BUF
2009 · W5CLE @ BUF6–3CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:0133Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 13:16740Punt7–0
BUFQ1 10:051156Field goal10–0
CLEQ1 5:51412Punt10–0
BUFQ1 3:37519Punt10–0
CLEQ1 1:3666Field goal10–3
BUFQ2 14:24624Punt10–3
CLEQ2 11:021571Touchdown10–10
BUFQ2 3:5237Opp touchdown10–17
BUFQ2 2:20731Punt10–17
CLEQ2 0:1700End of half10–17
BUFQ3 15:00380Touchdown17–17
CLEQ3 13:513-6Punt17–17
BUFQ3 11:471247Touchdown24–17
CLEQ3 6:32384Touchdown24–24
BUFQ3 5:3532Punt24–24
CLEQ3 4:5233Punt24–24
BUFQ3 3:253-7Punt24–24
CLEQ3 2:03926Field goal24–27
BUFQ4 12:3139Punt24–27
CLEQ4 11:15513Punt24–27
BUFQ4 8:45514Punt24–27
CLEQ4 7:00841Field goal24–30
BUFQ4 2:19420Opp touchdown24–37
BUFQ4 1:44938Turnover on downs24–37
CLEQ4 0:0900End of half24–37

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel11/2012900
Jeff Tuel8/208001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller8668.31
Fred Jackson17533.12
Tashard Choice5224.40
EJ Manuel11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods513640
Scott Chandler46490
Fred Jackson46400
Trevor Graham25210
Steve Johnson23190
Chris Hogan25160
Marcus Easley0100
Lee Smith0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden13/2419710
Brian Hoyer2/42500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee26722.81
Brian Hoyer11111.00
Bobby Rainey284.00
Brandon Weeden300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon46861
Greg Little35710
Jordan Cameron35360
Davone Bess25250
Chris Ogbonnaya1270
Gary Barnidge1120
Willis McGahee0200
Travis Benjamin0100
Bobby Rainey11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.32