Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.075
- 39.7%Success rate39.2%
- -0.107EPA / dropback-0.074
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.2%
- -3.82CPOE-3.79
- 33.7%Third-down rate34.9%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.27
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CLE are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 13 | 64 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Marcus Easley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 13/24 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 2/4 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 26 | 72 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 6 | 86 | 1 |
| Greg Little | 3 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.32