Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.145EPA / play+0.039
- 48.8%Success rate44.5%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.110
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.073
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +3.77CPOE-1.56
- 46.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 2.73Points / drive2.30
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 28/35 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 12 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Frank Gore Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 18/30 | 207 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 7 | 12 | 107 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47