2025 · WC

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

27·24

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

JAX -1.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.145EPA / play+0.039
  • 48.8%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback+0.110
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.073
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +3.77CPOE-1.56
  • 46.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 2.73Points / drive2.30
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX
2013 · W15BUF @ JAX27–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:29947Punt0–0
JAXQ1 7:51525Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 5:1536Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 2:54765Touchdown3–7
BUFQ2 14:1400Turnover on downs3–7
JAXQ2 14:05628Turnover on downs3–7
BUFQ2 11:191092Touchdown10–7
JAXQ2 5:3734Punt10–7
BUFQ2 4:35827Punt10–7
JAXQ2 1:05361Missed field goal10–7
BUFQ3 15:001049Field goal13–7
JAXQ3 8:12540Field goal13–10
BUFQ3 5:473-10Punt13–10
JAXQ3 3:581162Touchdown13–17
BUFQ4 12:55965Touchdown20–17
JAXQ4 8:561172Touchdown20–24
BUFQ4 4:03966Touchdown27–24
JAXQ4 1:0410Turnover27–24
BUFQ4 0:5400End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen28/3527310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook15463.10
Josh Allen11333.02

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir1212820
Brandin Cooks35580
Keon Coleman11360
Dawson Knox33300
Dalton Kincaid35281
Gabe Davis23140
Tyrell Shavers12140
Frank Gore Jr.1160
James Cook2350

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence18/3020732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne10676.70
Bhayshul Tuten45112.80
Trevor Lawrence6315.20
LeQuint Allen Jr.133.00
Parker Washington221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington7121071
Travis Etienne55491
Brian Thomas Jr.22211
Jakobi Meyers14120
Brenton Strange2590
LeQuint Allen Jr.1190
Tim Patrick0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.47