2016 · Week 12

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

21·28

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 42°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BUF -8.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBills
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.056
  • 41.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.076
  • -0.210EPA / rush+0.028
  • 7.1%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -4.51CPOE+0.94
  • 34.7%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 71.4%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.52Points / drive2.08
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX
2013 · W15BUF @ JAX27–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BUF
JAXQ1 15:001274Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 8:1535Punt7–0
JAXQ1 6:33619Punt7–0
BUFQ1 3:5630Punt7–0
JAXQ1 2:29513Punt7–0
BUFQ2 14:5184Punt7–0
JAXQ2 10:18615Punt7–0
BUFQ2 7:30832Punt7–0
JAXQ2 3:1430Punt7–0
BUFQ2 1:24522Touchdown7–6
JAXQ2 0:2000End of half7–6
BUFQ3 15:00175Touchdown7–13
JAXQ3 14:471165Touchdown14–13
BUFQ3 9:2633Punt14–13
JAXQ3 7:1165Punt14–13
BUFQ3 4:34475Touchdown14–20
JAXQ3 3:00765Touchdown21–20
BUFQ4 14:52958Touchdown21–28
JAXQ4 10:4639Punt21–28
BUFQ4 8:3439Punt21–28
JAXQ4 6:44837Turnover on downs21–28
BUFQ4 3:25622End of half21–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles13/2612620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles88110.10
Chris Ivory9444.91
Denard Robinson13393.00
T.J. Yeldon6172.80
Marqise Lee122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee46371
Allen Robinson24240
Ben Koyack22230
Neal Sterling23160
Allen Hurns17121
Chris Ivory11110
T.J. Yeldon1230

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor12/1816610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy191035.42
Tyrod Taylor7385.41
Jonathan Williams3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins33800
LeSean McCoy22310
Charles Clay24170
Justin Hunter11161
Marquise Goodwin24130
Brandon Tate1180
Walt Powell1110
Nick O'Leary0100
Jonathan Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.07