Closing spread
BUF -8.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.056
- 41.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.076
- -0.210EPA / rush+0.028
- 7.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- -4.51CPOE+0.94
- 34.7%Third-down rate41.7%
- 71.4%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.52Points / drive2.08
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 13/26 | 126 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 8 | 81 | 10.1 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Neal Sterling | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 7 | 12 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 12/18 | 166 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 3 | 80 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Walt Powell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07