Closing spread
BUF -14.5
Total
48
Model margin
-3.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.079
- 47.4%Success rate44.0%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- +1.95CPOE-4.53
- 47.6%Third-down rate35.6%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.52Points / drive1.33
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 31/47 | 264 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 8 | 85 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 8 | 11 | 33 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 15/26 | 118 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 2/2 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.43