2021 · Week 9

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

6·9

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BUF -14.5

Total

48

Model margin

-3.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.079
  • 47.4%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +1.95CPOE-4.53
  • 47.6%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.33
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX
2013 · W15BUF @ JAX27–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001154Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 8:571148Field goal3–3
JAXQ1 3:543-7Punt3–3
BUFQ1 2:231263Field goal6–3
JAXQ2 10:591048Field goal6–6
BUFQ2 5:30512Punt6–6
JAXQ2 3:20838Turnover6–6
BUFQ2 1:2659Punt6–6
JAXQ2 0:0300End of half6–6
BUFQ3 15:00945Turnover6–6
JAXQ3 10:06834Missed field goal6–6
BUFQ3 5:41723Turnover6–6
JAXQ3 1:55928Field goal6–9
BUFQ4 12:10535Punt6–9
JAXQ4 9:5638Punt6–9
BUFQ4 8:17534Turnover6–9
JAXQ4 5:30510Punt6–9
BUFQ4 2:59832Turnover on downs6–9
JAXQ4 1:0236Punt6–9

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen31/4726402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen55010.00
Devin Singletary6162.70
Zack Moss362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs68850
Emmanuel Sanders48650
Devin Singletary78430
Cole Beasley811330
Zack Moss24180
Isaiah McKenzie22100
Tommy Sweeney22100
Gabe Davis0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence15/2611800
C.J. Beathard2/23300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde21673.20
Jamal Agnew11111.00
Trevor Lawrence341.30
Dare Ogunbowale111.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dan Arnold47600
Jamal Agnew35270
Laviska Shenault Jr.44240
Marvin Jones35210
Chris Manhertz1190
Carlos Hyde1260
Dare Ogunbowale1140
Laquon Treadwell0100
Luke Farrell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.43