Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
43
Model margin
-0.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.156
- 39.7%Success rate38.3%
- -0.107EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.181
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- -3.82CPOE-4.13
- 33.7%Third-down rate31.0%
- 54.5%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.33Points / drive1.03
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 17/24 | 193 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 13 | 67 | 5.2 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 6 | 82 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 21/36 | 237 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Todman | 25 | 109 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Kerry Taylor | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Jeremy Ebert | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.20