2013 · Week 15

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

27·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

BUF -4

Total

43

Model margin

-0.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.156
  • 39.7%Success rate38.3%
  • -0.107EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.037EPA / rush-0.181
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.6%
  • -3.82CPOE-4.13
  • 33.7%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 54.5%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.03
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00327Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 13:5831Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 13:103-18Punt3–0
BUFQ1 12:02716Turnover3–0
JAXQ1 9:55519Field goal3–3
BUFQ1 8:07950Missed field goal3–3
JAXQ1 3:271056Touchdown3–10
BUFQ2 14:543-9Punt3–10
JAXQ2 13:0333Punt3–10
BUFQ2 11:121085Touchdown10–10
JAXQ2 7:0737Punt10–10
BUFQ2 5:41887Touchdown17–10
JAXQ2 2:14851Turnover17–10
BUFQ2 0:2638Field goal20–10
BUFQ3 15:0035Punt20–10
JAXQ3 13:18656Turnover20–10
BUFQ3 10:19734Punt20–10
JAXQ3 6:48628Field goal20–13
BUFQ3 4:43822Turnover20–13
JAXQ3 1:15760Touchdown20–20
BUFQ4 13:501065Touchdown27–20
JAXQ4 9:351770Turnover27–20
BUFQ4 3:1534Punt27–20
JAXQ4 1:464-5Turnover on downs27–20
BUFQ4 0:4600End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel17/2419321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson17804.70
C.J. Spiller13675.20
EJ Manuel10373.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods56821
Scott Chandler55540
Chris Gragg11280
Fred Jackson1280
Steve Johnson1340
C.J. Spiller1210
Trevor Graham0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne21/3623722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Todman251094.40
Denard Robinson22814.00
Chad Henne4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis47541
Clay Harbor34520
Jordan Todman48440
Kerry Taylor45420
Mike Brown37200
Ace Sanders23171
Jeremy Ebert1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.20