2024 · Week 3

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

10·47

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BUF -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBills
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.186
  • 41.5%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.029
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.88CPOE+0.64
  • 36.6%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.90
  • 2.3%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX
2013 · W15BUF @ JAX27–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–6
JAXQ1 9:3431Punt0–6
BUFQ1 8:371265Touchdown0–13
JAXQ1 3:251547Field goal3–13
BUFQ2 10:39868Touchdown3–20
JAXQ2 6:19511Turnover3–20
BUFQ2 4:13541Touchdown3–27
JAXQ2 2:0453Punt3–27
BUFQ2 1:12739Touchdown3–34
JAXQ2 0:1948Turnover on downs3–34
JAXQ3 15:00863Touchdown10–34
BUFQ3 11:151061Field goal10–37
JAXQ3 5:031353Turnover on downs10–37
BUFQ4 14:0937Punt10–37
JAXQ4 11:5540Turnover on downs10–37
BUFQ4 9:58312Field goal10–40
JAXQ4 7:453-2Turnover10–40
BUFQ4 6:21421Touchdown10–47
JAXQ4 4:041155Turnover on downs10–47
BUFQ4 0:4400End of half10–47

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence21/3817811
Mac Jones5/82200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne11686.20
D'Ernest Johnson2126.00
Tank Bigsby294.50
Trevor Lawrence231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk810790
Brian Thomas Jr.59480
Gabe Davis26180
Parker Washington23180
Travis Etienne46170
Brenton Strange25121
Josiah Deguara1180
Luke Farrell1210
D'Ernest Johnson0100
Devin Duvernay11-10

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen23/3026340
Mitchell Trubisky1/1300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen6447.30
James Cook11393.51
Ray Davis7223.11
Ty Johnson3186.00
Curtis Samuel100.00
Mitchell Trubisky1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Khalil Shakir66721
James Cook45480
Dalton Kincaid35411
Ty Johnson33281
Keon Coleman11241
Curtis Samuel33220
Mack Hollins12160
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1270
Dawson Knox1270
Ray Davis1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.26