Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.186
- 41.5%Success rate47.8%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.029
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.88CPOE+0.64
- 36.6%Third-down rate45.6%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate75.1%
- 1.74Points / drive2.90
- 2.3%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 21/38 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 5/8 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 23/30 | 263 | 4 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1/1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| James Cook | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| James Cook | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Keon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.32
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.26