2023 · Week 5

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

25·20

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

Tottenham Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

BUF -5.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBills
  • -0.032EPA / play+0.097
  • 43.1%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.192EPA / rush+0.010
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +1.62CPOE+4.96
  • 38.5%Third-down rate49.7%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.84Points / drive2.33
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX
2013 · W15BUF @ JAX27–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BUF
JAXQ1 15:00425Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:3438Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:091068Touchdown8–0
BUFQ1 6:5939Punt8–0
JAXQ1 5:03844Field goal11–0
BUFQ1 1:13618Punt11–0
JAXQ2 14:08930Punt11–0
BUFQ2 10:15419Punt11–0
JAXQ2 7:51413Punt11–0
BUFQ2 5:441186Touchdown11–7
JAXQ2 1:14752Turnover11–7
BUFQ2 0:1000End of half11–7
BUFQ3 15:00414Punt11–7
JAXQ3 13:34830Punt11–7
BUFQ3 9:30448Punt11–7
JAXQ3 7:561763Turnover11–7
BUFQ4 14:49519Turnover11–7
JAXQ4 13:061171Touchdown18–7
BUFQ4 7:441381Touchdown18–13
JAXQ4 4:03575Touchdown25–13
BUFQ4 2:56475Touchdown25–20
JAXQ4 2:1134Punt25–20
BUFQ4 0:22112Turnover25–20
JAXQ4 0:1300End of half25–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence25/3731510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne261365.22
Trevor Lawrence7314.40
Calvin Ridley2147.00
Tank Bigsby382.70
Christian Kirk166.00
Jamal Agnew111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley781220
Christian Kirk68780
Travis Etienne45480
Evan Engram48280
Zay Jones35231
Luke Farrell11160
Tim Jones0100
Brenton Strange0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen27/4035921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen4143.51
Damien Harris3134.30
Latavius Murray263.00
James Cook5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs8111211
Gabe Davis681001
Deonte Harty22620
James Cook34250
Dalton Kincaid22190
Dawson Knox36170
Khalil Shakir11110
Trent Sherfield1130
Latavius Murray1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.67