Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.097
- 43.1%Success rate48.4%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.192EPA / rush+0.010
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.62CPOE+4.96
- 38.5%Third-down rate49.7%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.84Points / drive2.33
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/37 | 315 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 26 | 136 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 8 | 122 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 27/40 | 359 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Damien Harris | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 11 | 121 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 8 | 100 | 1 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 62 | 0 |
| James Cook | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.67