2017 · WC

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

3·10

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

JAX -8.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.020
  • 39.0%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.28CPOE-2.97
  • 42.2%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.81
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX
2013 · W15BUF @ JAX27–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–JAX
BUFQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:3936Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:1339Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:11521Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:361145Punt0–0
JAXQ2 15:00616Punt0–0
BUFQ2 12:07213Turnover0–0
JAXQ2 11:253-3Punt0–0
BUFQ2 9:551959Field goal3–0
JAXQ2 1:49417Punt3–0
BUFQ2 1:0239Punt3–0
JAXQ2 0:40427Field goal3–3
BUFQ2 0:0200End of half3–3
JAXQ3 15:00426Punt3–3
BUFQ3 13:09834Punt3–3
JAXQ3 9:341586Touchdown3–10
BUFQ3 0:42927Punt3–10
JAXQ4 11:18511Punt3–10
BUFQ4 8:29629Punt3–10
JAXQ4 5:50517Punt3–10
BUFQ4 3:2430Punt3–10
JAXQ4 3:0137Punt3–10
BUFQ4 1:51725Turnover3–10
JAXQ4 0:2600End of half3–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor17/3713401
Nathan Peterman1/31401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy19753.90
Tyrod Taylor7273.90
Deonte Thompson199.00
Nathan Peterman144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy68440
Deonte Thompson26230
Nick O'Leary26220
Zay Jones24200
Charles Clay35150
Kelvin Benjamin1290
Logan Thomas1250
Patrick DiMarco0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles12/238710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles10888.80
Leonard Fournette21572.70
Marqise Lee155.00
Corey Grant133.00
Chris Ivory122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook58480
Leonard Fournette35210
Marcedes Lewis33170
Ben Koyack1111
Chris Ivory0100
Allen Hurns0100
Marqise Lee0100
Keelan Cole0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.33