Closing spread
JAX -8.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.020
- 39.0%Success rate41.7%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.28CPOE-2.97
- 42.2%Third-down rate36.9%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.47Points / drive1.81
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/37 | 134 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Peterman | 1/3 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 12/23 | 87 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 10 | 88 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 21 | 57 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.59
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.33