Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.140
- 40.4%Success rate37.8%
- -0.101EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.184EPA / rush-0.143
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.63CPOE-7.12
- 40.5%Third-down rate32.3%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.26Points / drive1.26
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 12/23 | 127 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 43 | 43.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 4 | 44 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 8/19 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13 | 99 | 7.6 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Foster | 2 | 3 | 94 | 1 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
6.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.39