2018 · Week 12

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

21·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 44°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBills
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.140
  • 40.4%Success rate37.8%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback-0.137
  • -0.184EPA / rush-0.143
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -4.63CPOE-7.12
  • 40.5%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.26
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX
2013 · W15BUF @ JAX27–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BUF
BUFQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:29624Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:25560Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 5:0235Punt0–7
BUFQ1 3:58386Touchdown0–14
JAXQ1 2:391174Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 10:5837Punt7–14
JAXQ2 8:48679Touchdown14–14
BUFQ2 5:30720Punt14–14
JAXQ2 1:39422Turnover14–14
BUFQ2 0:3859End of half14–14
JAXQ3 15:0036Punt14–14
BUFQ3 14:03519Punt14–14
JAXQ3 11:04612Punt14–14
BUFQ3 7:3233Punt14–14
JAXQ3 6:121133Missed field goal14–14
BUFQ3 0:35338Touchdown14–21
JAXQ4 14:524-10Punt14–21
BUFQ4 13:1933Punt14–21
JAXQ4 11:42618Punt14–21
BUFQ4 9:20854Punt14–21
JAXQ4 5:4820Turnover14–21
BUFQ4 5:01514Field goal14–24
JAXQ4 3:06870Touchdown21–24
BUFQ4 1:2000End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles12/2312712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette18955.32
Dede Westbrook14343.00
Blake Bortles6396.50
Carlos Hyde10333.30
T.J. Yeldon3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook34441
Donte Moncrief14290
T.J. Yeldon24170
Leonard Fournette33130
Blake Bell1150
James O'Shaughnessy0200
Keelan Cole0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen8/1916010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen13997.61
LeSean McCoy17462.70
Chris Ivory3144.70
Isaiah McKenzie284.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Foster23941
Kelvin Benjamin12320
Jason Croom23160
Isaiah McKenzie23110
LeSean McCoy1170
Deonte Thompson0300
Logan Thomas0100
Zay Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

6.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

40.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.39