Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.051
- 40.7%Success rate41.8%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.254
- 10.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- +2.97CPOE-3.08
- 38.1%Third-down rate33.9%
- 65.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.83Points / drive1.59
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 24/42 | 298 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 18 | 68 | 3.8 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 9 | 13 | 84 | 1 |
| Marcus Easley | 1 | 1 | 58 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 6 | 11 | 56 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Chris Gragg | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 13/29 | 182 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 20 | 115 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 9 | 98 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Nic Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
6.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.04