2015 · Week 7

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB EJ Manuel

31·34

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.051
  • 40.7%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.254
  • 10.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +2.97CPOE-3.08
  • 38.1%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 65.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.59
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2013 · W15BUF @ JAX27–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–JAX
BUFQ1 15:00822Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:2643Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:04645Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 7:26832Punt3–0
BUFQ1 3:513-4Punt3–0
JAXQ1 2:13773Touchdown3–7
BUFQ2 14:053-11Opp touchdown3–14
BUFQ2 12:2110Opp touchdown3–21
BUFQ2 12:1445Turnover3–21
JAXQ2 9:55336Touchdown3–27
BUFQ2 8:251285Touchdown10–27
JAXQ2 2:463-2Punt10–27
BUFQ2 1:38625Field goal13–27
JAXQ2 0:0800End of half13–27
JAXQ3 15:001874Turnover on downs13–27
BUFQ3 5:301486Field goal16–27
JAXQ4 14:5030Punt16–27
BUFQ4 14:18546Turnover16–27
JAXQ4 11:5333Punt16–27
BUFQ4 10:5964Punt16–27
JAXQ4 8:5634Punt16–27
BUFQ4 7:15352Touchdown24–27
JAXQ4 6:3334Opp touchdown31–27
JAXQ4 5:21872Touchdown31–34
BUFQ4 2:16620Turnover on downs31–34
JAXQ4 0:5300End of half31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
EJ Manuel24/4229822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy18683.80
EJ Manuel8384.80
Dan Herron294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods913841
Marcus Easley11581
Chris Hogan611560
LeSean McCoy24360
Chris Gragg27350
Charles Clay35260
Dan Herron1130

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles13/2918221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon201155.81
Toby Gerhart681.30
Blake Bortles5-3-0.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson69981
Allen Hurns28531
Marcedes Lewis22130
T.J. Yeldon1390
Bryan Walters1150
Julius Thomas1540
Nic Jacobs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

6.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.04