Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
-0.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapRams
- -0.167EPA / play-0.226
- 40.0%Success rate43.3%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.270
- -0.360EPA / rush-0.171
- 5.5%Explosive rate6.7%
- -6.21CPOE-4.74
- 25.0%Third-down rate22.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 1.39Points / drive0.69
- 3.6%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.6 points. LA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.74