2026 · Week 8

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

9·24

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Final · play by play

How it finished

Final

K.Williams up the middle to LAC 36 for 2 yards (T.Tuipulotu; J.Eboigbe).

Last play · Rams · Rush

Win probability · ESPN's model, not ours

0% ChargersRams 100%

Scoring

  1. Q1 5:42Rams Brandon McManus 30 Yd Field Goal0-3
  2. Q1 0:04Chargers Cameron Dicker 34 Yd Field Goal3-3
  3. Q2 10:06Chargers Cameron Dicker 46 Yd Field Goal6-3
  4. Q2 1:55Chargers Cameron Dicker 41 Yd Field Goal9-3
  5. Q2 0:19Rams Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)9-10
  6. Q3 10:42Rams Blake Corum 23 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)9-17
  7. Q3 3:41Rams Puka Nacua 18 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Brandon McManus Kick)9-24

Every drive · newest first

Q4 6:39Rams 12 plays, 47 yards, 6:39 · from LAR 17End of Game
  1. Q4 0:00END GAME
  2. 4th & 1K.Williams up the middle to LAC 36 for 2 yards (T.Tuipulotu; J.Eboigbe).
  3. 3rd & 4K.Williams up the middle to LAC 38 for 3 yards (N.Barrett).
  4. 2nd & 5K.Williams left end to LAC 41 for 1 yard (T.Tuipulotu).
  5. 2nd & 5Timeout #3 by LAC at 01:54.
  6. 1st & 10K.Williams right tackle to LAC 42 for 5 yards (M.Wax; J.Caldwell).
  7. 1st & 10Two-Minute Warning
  8. 3rd & 5M.Stafford pass short middle to D.Allen to LAC 47 for 6 yards (E.Molden).
  9. 3rd & 5Timeout #3 by LA at 02:10.
  10. 2nd & 8K.Williams up the middle to LA 47 for 3 yards (T.Still; J.Eboigbe).
  11. 1st & 10K.Williams up the middle to LA 44 for 2 yards (M.Wax).
  12. 2nd & 4K.Williams right tackle to LA 42 for 9 yards (D.Henley).
  13. 2nd & 4Timeout #2 by LAC at 04:30.
  14. 1st & 10K.Williams left tackle to LA 33 for 6 yards (T.Jefferson).
  15. 3rd & 6K.Williams up the middle to LA 27 for 6 yards (J.Eboigbe).Los Angeles Chargers challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
  16. 2nd & 9K.Williams up the middle to LA 21 for 3 yards (A.Mesidor).
  17. 1st & 10K.Williams up the middle to LA 18 for 1 yard (C.Hart; D.Phillips).
Q4 12:13Chargers 10 plays, 57 yards, 5:34 · from LAC 26Downs
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 06:39.
  2. 4th & 8(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to O.Gadsden to LA 17 for 7 yards (J.Wallace). The ball spot was assisted by replay.
  3. 3rd & 17(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to O.Gadsden to LA 24 for 9 yards (Q.Lake; E.Forbes).
  4. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LA 33 for -9 yards (J.Stewart).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LA 24 for 2 yards (B.Fiske).
  6. 3rd & 9(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to K.Vidal (O.Speights).PENALTY on LA-B.Fiske, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LA 41 - No Play.
  7. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to Q.Johnston to LA 41 for 1 yard (E.Forbes; Q.Lake).
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short right [B.Young].
  9. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to O.Gadsden to LA 42 for 12 yards (N.Landman).
  10. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LAC 46 for 5 yards (K.Kinchens).
  11. 1st & 10J.Herbert pass short right to O.Hampton to LAC 41 for 3 yards (O.Speights).
  12. 1st & 10J.Herbert pass short middle to K.Mitchell to LAC 38 for 12 yards (K.Curl).
Q3 0:17Rams 5 plays, 20 yards, 3:04 · from LAR 17Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:13.
  2. 4th & 7E.Evans punts 37 yards to LAC 26, Center-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
  3. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to P.Nacua to LA 37 for -2 yards (I.Waxter).
  4. 3rd & 5Timeout #2 by LA at 13:02.
  5. 2nd & 7B.Corum up the middle to LA 39 for 2 yards (N.Barrett).
  6. 1st & 10B.Corum up the middle to LA 37 for 3 yards (D.Tomlinson).
  7. 2nd & 5(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to T.Atwell to LA 34 for 12 yards (I.Waxter).
  8. Q3 0:00END QUARTER 3
  9. 1st & 10B.Corum up the middle to LA 22 for 5 yards (D.Phillips; K.Mack).
Q3 3:41Chargers 5 plays, 7 yards, 3:24 · from LAC 19Punt
  1. 4th & 21J.Scott punts 57 yards to LA 17, Center-J.Harris. A.Bachman to LA 17 for no gain (K.Lambert-Smith; K.Williamson).
  2. 3rd & 30(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to K.Vidal to LAC 26 for 9 yards (J.McCollough). ** Injury Update: LA-T.McDuffie has returned to the game.
  3. 3rd & 30Timeout #1 by LA at 01:12.
  4. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 26 for -11 yards (W.Bailey). FUMBLES (W.Bailey) [W.Bailey], touched at LAC 20, ball out of bounds at LAC 17.
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 37 for no gain (T.McDuffie). LA-T.McDuffie was injured during the play.
  6. 2nd & 6(Shotgun) K.Vidal up the middle to LAC 37 for 14 yards (K.Kinchens; K.Curl).
  7. 1st & 10J.Herbert pass short right to K.Mitchell pushed ob at LAC 23 for 4 yards (J.Wallace).
  8. Q3 3:41J.Karty kicks 54 yards from LA 35 to LAC 11. D.Davis to LAC 29 for 18 yards (K.Kinchens).PENALTY on LAC-T.Dye, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 29.
Q3 4:25Rams 2 plays, 22 yards, 0:44 · from LAC 22Touchdown
  1. Q3 3:41Official Timeout at 03:41.
  2. 2nd & 6M.Stafford pass short left to P.Nacua for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-J.McQuaide, Holder-E.Evans.
  3. 1st & 10K.Williams up the middle to LAC 18 for 4 yards (D.Tomlinson).
Q3 6:20Chargers 4 plays, 14 yards, 1:55 · from LAC 23Interception
  1. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by T.McDuffie at LAC 48. T.McDuffie to LAC 22 for 26 yards (Q.Johnston).
  2. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to O.Gadsden pushed ob at LAC 37 for 9 yards (Q.Lake).
  3. 2nd & 6(Shotgun) K.Mitchell right guard to LAC 28 for 1 yard (L.Murchison; W.Bailey).
  4. 1st & 10K.Vidal right end pushed ob at LAC 27 for 4 yards (N.Landman).
Q3 8:52Rams 6 plays, 23 yards, 2:32 · from LAR 9Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 06:20.
  2. 4th & 15E.Evans punts 52 yards to LAC 16, Center-J.McQuaide. D.Davis to LAC 23 for 7 yards (J.Whittington).
  3. 3rd & 15(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to P.Nacua.
  4. 3rd & 10(Shotgun) PENALTY on LA-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 37 - No Play.
  5. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to J.Whittington.
  6. 1st & 10M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to T.Atwell.
  7. 1st & 10M.Stafford sacked at LA 23 for -9 yards (T.Tart).PENALTY on LAC-D.Henley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LA 32 - No Play.
  8. 3rd & 1(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to T.Higbee to LA 32 for 14 yards (R.Mickens; M.Wax).
  9. 2nd & 4K.Williams up the middle to LA 18 for 3 yards (D.Phillips; J.Eboigbe).
  10. 1st & 10K.Williams left guard to LA 15 for 6 yards (R.Mickens; D.Henley).
Q3 10:42Chargers 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:50 · from LAC 40Punt
  1. 4th & 5J.Scott punts 46 yards to LA 9, Center-J.Harris, fair catch by A.Bachman.
  2. 4th & 5Official Timeout at 09:13.
  3. 3rd & 15(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to T.Harris to LAC 45 for 10 yards (J.Watson). LA-J.Watson was injured during the play.
  4. 2nd & 19(Shotgun) J.Herbert right end to LAC 35 for 4 yards (T.McDuffie; K.Kinchens).
  5. 1st & 15(Shotgun) K.Vidal left tackle to LAC 31 for -4 yards (A.Donald).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-S.Matlock, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 40 - No Play.
  7. Q3 10:42J.Karty kicks 44 yards from LA 35 to LAC 21, short of landing zone.PENALTY on LA-J.Karty, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LAC 40.
Q3 15:00Rams 8 plays, 74 yards, 4:18 · from LAR 26Touchdown
  1. Q3 10:42Official Timeout at 10:42.
  2. 1st & 10B.Corum up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-J.McQuaide, Holder-E.Evans.
  3. 1st & 10(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to P.Nacua to LAC 23 for 12 yards (T.Jefferson).
  4. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua to LAC 35 for 12 yards (T.Jefferson; C.Hart).
  5. 1st & 10M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to B.Corum.
  6. 2nd & 2B.Corum up the middle to LAC 47 for 8 yards (T.Still; R.Mickens).
  7. 1st & 15B.Corum up the middle pushed ob at LA 45 for 13 yards (R.Mickens).
  8. 1st & 10PENALTY on LA-T.Higbee, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 37 - No Play.
  9. 2nd & 5B.Corum right tackle to LA 37 for 6 yards (D.Henley; T.Tart).
  10. 1st & 10B.Corum up the middle to LA 31 for 5 yards (T.Jefferson; R.Mickens).
  11. Q3 15:00C.Dicker kicks 60 yards from LAC 35 to LA 5. A.Bachman to LA 26 for 21 yards (T.Jefferson; J.Eboigbe).
Q2 0:19Chargers 3 plays, 59 yards, 0:19 · from LAC 40End of Half
  1. Q2 0:00END QUARTER 2
  2. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep right to L.McConkey to LA 1 for 54 yards (J.Watson; K.Kinchens).
  3. 3rd & 5Timeout #3 by LA at 00:04.
  4. 2nd & 5(No Huddle) J.Herbert spiked the ball to stop the clock.
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to Q.Johnston to LAC 45 for 5 yards (T.McDuffie).
  6. Q2 0:19J.Karty kicks 44 yards from LA 35 to LAC 21, short of landing zone.PENALTY on LA-J.Karty, Kickoff Short of Landing Zone, placed at LAC 40.
Q2 1:55Rams 5 plays, 66 yards, 1:36 · from LAR 34Touchdown
  1. 1st & 1K.Williams right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-J.McQuaide, Holder-E.Evans.
  2. 1st & 1Timeout #2 by LA at 00:22.
  3. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to P.Nacua to LAC 1 for 13 yards (T.Jefferson; I.Waxter).
  4. 2nd & 7Timeout #1 by LA at 00:44.
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to K.Williams to LAC 14 for 3 yards (D.Phillips).
  6. 1st & 10Timeout #3 by LAC at 01:01.
  7. 2nd & 1(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep left to T.Atwell to LAC 17 for 40 yards (T.Still).
  8. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to P.Nacua to LA 43 for 9 yards (D.Henley).
  9. Q2 1:55C.Dicker kicks 59 yards from LAC 35 to LA 6. A.Bachman to LA 34 for 28 yards (R.Mickens).
Q2 8:26Chargers 11 plays, 57 yards, 6:31 · from LAC 20Field Goal
  1. Q2 1:55Official Timeout at 01:55.
  2. 4th & 3C.Dicker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.
  3. 4th & 2Timeout #2 by LAC at 02:00.
  4. 4th & 2Two-Minute Warning
  5. 3rd & 3(Shotgun) O.Hampton up the middle to LA 23 for no gain (B.Fiske; W.Bailey).
  6. 2nd & 7(Shotgun) J.Herbert scrambles up the middle to LA 23 for 4 yards (N.Landman).
  7. 1st & 10K.Vidal up the middle to LA 27 for 3 yards (O.Speights).
  8. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to O.Gadsden pushed ob at LA 30 for 15 yards (K.Curl).
  9. 2nd & 11(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to O.Hampton to LA 45 for 4 yards (T.McDuffie; O.Speights) [T.Davis].
  10. 1st & 10K.Vidal left tackle to LA 49 for -1 yards (J.Stewart, J.Watson).
  11. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to T.Harris to LA 48 for 6 yards (J.Wallace; W.Bailey).
  12. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) O.Hampton right tackle to LAC 46 for 3 yards (J.Stewart; Q.Lake).
  13. 1st & 10O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 43 for 2 yards (T.McDuffie).
  14. 1st & 10J.Herbert pass deep middle to Q.Johnston to LAC 41 for 21 yards (O.Speights; Q.Lake).
Q2 10:06Rams 3 plays, 8 yards, 1:40 · from LAR 28Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 08:26.
  2. 4th & 2E.Evans punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-J.McQuaide, Touchback.
  3. 3rd & 2M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to T.Higbee [A.Mesidor].
  4. 2nd & 8(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua to LA 36 for 6 yards (D.Henley).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to D.Allen to LA 30 for 2 yards (I.Waxter).
  6. Q2 10:06C.Dicker kicks 59 yards from LAC 35 to LA 6. A.Bachman to LA 28 for 22 yards (J.Eboigbe).
Q2 13:19Chargers 8 plays, 47 yards, 3:13 · from LAC 25Field Goal
  1. Q2 10:06Official Timeout at 10:06.
  2. 4th & 3C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.
  3. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) K.Vidal up the middle to LA 28 for 1 yard (W.Bailey).
  4. 2nd & 9K.Vidal left end to LA 29 for 5 yards (J.Watson).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to K.Mitchell pushed ob at LA 34 for 1 yard (N.Landman).
  6. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right to C.Kolar pushed ob at LA 35 for 20 yards (K.Curl).
  7. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short middle to T.Harris to LAC 45 for 15 yards (J.Wallace).Penalty on LA-T.McDuffie, Defensive Holding, declined.
  8. 2nd & 5(No Huddle) J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to C.Kolar (O.Speights).
  9. 1st & 10(Shotgun) O.Hampton up the middle to LAC 30 for 5 yards (N.Landman).
Q1 0:04Rams 3 plays, -3 yards, 1:45 · from LAR 20Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 13:19.
  2. 4th & 13E.Evans punts 58 yards to LAC 25, Center-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
  3. 3rd & 13(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to T.Atwell.
  4. 2nd & 8M.Stafford sacked at LA 17 for -5 yards (T.Tuipulotu).
  5. 1st & 10B.Corum right tackle to LA 22 for 2 yards (T.Tart). ** Injury Update: LAC-D.Henley has returned to the game.
  6. Q1 0:00END QUARTER 1
  7. Q1 0:04C.Dicker kicks 61 yards from LAC 35 to LA 4. A.Bachman to LA 20 for 16 yards (K.Williamson).
Q1 5:42Chargers 9 plays, 56 yards, 5:38 · from LAC 28Field Goal
  1. 4th & 2C.Dicker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.
  2. 3rd & 1O.Hampton left guard to LA 16 for -1 yards (N.Landman, J.Stewart).
  3. 2nd & 4K.Mitchell left guard to LA 15 for 3 yards (N.Landman).
  4. 1st & 10O.Hampton right tackle to LA 18 for 6 yards (T.McDuffie).
  5. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to Q.Johnston to LA 24 for 10 yards (K.Kinchens).
  6. 1st & 10O.Hampton left end to LA 34 for 1 yard (J.Stewart; T.McDuffie).
  7. 1st & 10J.Herbert pass short left to L.McConkey to LA 35 for 30 yards (Q.Lake).
  8. 3rd & 8(Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 25 for -5 yards (K.Curl).PENALTY on LA-J.Watson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 30 - No Play.
  9. 2nd & 9(Shotgun) K.Mitchell up the middle to LAC 30 for 1 yard (B.Young).
  10. 1st & 10K.Mitchell up the middle to LAC 29 for 1 yard (A.Donald).
  11. Q1 5:42J.Karty kicks 57 yards from LA 35 to LAC 8. K.Mitchell to LAC 28 for 20 yards (K.Kinchens).
Q1 7:11Rams 4 plays, 8 yards, 1:29 · from LAC 19Field Goal
  1. Q1 5:42Official Timeout at 05:42.
  2. 4th & 2B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.McQuaide, Holder-E.Evans.
  3. 3rd & 2(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to K.Mumpfield.
  4. 2nd & 5(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua to LAC 11 for 3 yards (T.Tuipulotu).
  5. 1st & 10M.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua to LAC 14 for 5 yards (C.Hart; T.Dye).
Q1 8:39Chargers 3 plays, 5 yards, 1:28 · from LAR 43Interception
  1. 3rd & 5(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right intended for C.Kolar INTERCEPTED by Q.Lake at LA 36. Q.Lake to LAC 19 for 45 yards (Q.Johnston).Penalty on LAC-L.McConkey, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
  2. 2nd & 6K.Vidal left guard to LA 38 for 1 yard (T.Davis).
  3. 1st & 10(Shotgun) O.Hampton right tackle to LA 39 for 4 yards (J.Stewart; Q.Lake).
Q1 10:42Rams 3 plays, -3 yards, 2:03 · from LAR 11Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 08:39.
  2. 4th & 13E.Evans punts 35 yards to LA 43, Center-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.
  3. 4th & 8(Punt formation) PENALTY on LA-O.Speights, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 13 - No Play.
  4. 3rd & 4(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left to P.Nacua to LA 13 for -4 yards (I.Waxter).Penalty on LA, Illegal Shift, declined.
  5. 3rd & 4Timeout #1 by LAC at 09:21.
  6. 2nd & 8B.Corum up the middle to LA 17 for 4 yards (T.Dye).
  7. 1st & 10B.Corum up the middle to LA 13 for 2 yards (J.Caldwell).
Q1 12:06Chargers 3 plays, -3 yards, 1:24 · from LAR 47Punt
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 10:42.
  2. 4th & 13J.Scott punts 39 yards to LA 11, Center-J.Harris, fair catch by A.Bachman.
  3. 3rd & 13(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to L.McConkey.
  4. 2nd & 12J.Herbert pass short right to L.McConkey to 50 for -1 yards (O.Speights).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to K.Vidal to LA 49 for -2 yards (T.McDuffie).
Q1 13:52Rams 3 plays, 4 yards, 1:46 · from LAR 33Interception
  1. 1st & 10Official Timeout at 12:06.
  2. 3rd & 6(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Mumpfield INTERCEPTED by T.Still at LA 47. T.Still pushed ob at LA 47 for no gain (K.Mumpfield).
  3. 3rd & 1D.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. PENALTY on LA-T.Higbee, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 42 - No Play.
  4. 2nd & 2(Shotgun) K.Williams up the middle to LA 42 for 1 yard (T.Jefferson; K.Mack).
  5. 1st & 10(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short right to P.Nacua to LA 41 for 8 yards (I.Waxter).
Q1 15:00Chargers 3 plays, 3 yards, 1:08 · from LAC 23Punt
  1. 4th & 7J.Scott punts 49 yards to LA 25, Center-J.Harris. A.Bachman to LA 33 for 8 yards (J.Harris; K.Lambert-Smith).
  2. 3rd & 7(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to L.McConkey (Q.Lake).
  3. 2nd & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left to L.McConkey to LAC 26 for 3 yards (T.McDuffie; N.Landman).
  4. 1st & 10(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to O.Hampton.
  5. Q1 15:00J.Karty kicks 51 yards from LA 35 to LAC 14. D.Davis to LAC 23 for 9 yards (D.Peterson).

Plays via ESPN. The full play-by-play, with EPA and our win probability, lands with the overnight data refresh.

Closing spread

LA -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Rams

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRams
  • -0.209EPA / play+0.059
  • 36.9%Success rate49.0%
  • -0.191EPA / dropback+0.117
  • -0.235EPA / rush-0.042
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -5.83CPOE+1.33
  • 33.8%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 59.2%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.22Points / drive2.15
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.6 points. LA are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17LA @ LAC10–31CHARGERS
2018 · W3LAC @ LA23–35RAMS
2014 · W12STL @ SD24–27CHARGERS
2010 · W6SD @ STL17–20RAMS
2006 · W8STL @ SD24–38CHARGERS
2002 · W10SD @ STL24–28RAMS
2000 · W5SD @ STL31–57RAMS

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.94