Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.210EPA / play-0.099
- 49.2%Success rate36.7%
- +0.338EPA / dropback-0.029
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.195
- 13.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- +4.89CPOE+0.39
- 48.3%Third-down rate38.6%
- 70.0%Red-zone TD rate46.3%
- 3.19Points / drive1.65
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.86