Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapVikings
- +0.300EPA / play+0.055
- 41.8%Success rate37.7%
- +0.597EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.125
- 14.5%Explosive rate3.3%
- +8.14CPOE-4.89
- 33.3%Third-down rate57.1%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 3.07Points / drive2.90
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 50.3 points. MIN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.15