Closing spread
DET -7
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.119EPA / play-0.046
- 49.6%Success rate40.4%
- +0.264EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.128
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.28CPOE-5.39
- 39.5%Third-down rate42.3%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.76Points / drive1.82
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.47