Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Lionsedge mapDolphins
- -0.027EPA / play-0.242
- 45.5%Success rate34.5%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.183
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.399
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- -2.91CPOE-8.85
- 38.5%Third-down rate20.0%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.20Points / drive1.18
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 49.4 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.49
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.27