Closing spread
SF -10
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.153
- 43.1%Success rate52.5%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.001
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- -1.41CPOE+4.63
- 40.6%Third-down rate51.0%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
- 2.49Points / drive2.81
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.79