Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+9.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge map49ers
- -0.029EPA / play+0.190
- 43.1%Success rate56.9%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.142
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +0.71CPOE+0.77
- 41.7%Third-down rate58.3%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 2.44Points / drive2.98
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.52
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+9.30