Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-13.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapFalcons
- +0.118EPA / play-0.358
- 40.9%Success rate36.7%
- -0.014EPA / dropback-0.638
- +0.259EPA / rush-0.113
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- -11.92CPOE-10.42
- 56.3%Third-down rate16.7%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.57Points / drive0.46
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-15.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-13.18