Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chiefsedge mapFalcons
- +0.113EPA / play-0.087
- 47.1%Success rate42.9%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.138
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.027
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.39CPOE-7.31
- 39.9%Third-down rate35.0%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 2.26Points / drive1.72
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.48