Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapLions
- +0.052EPA / play+0.144
- 45.0%Success rate49.9%
- +0.215EPA / dropback+0.309
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.108
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +7.12CPOE+1.18
- 40.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 2.06Points / drive2.92
- 3.1%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.63