Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Patriotsedge mapLions
- -0.092EPA / play-0.027
- 40.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.451EPA / rush-0.072
- 1.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- +5.97CPOE-2.91
- 31.3%Third-down rate38.5%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.11Points / drive2.20
- 4.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.29