Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cardinalsedge mapChiefs
- -0.007EPA / play+0.113
- 44.1%Success rate47.1%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.072EPA / rush+0.065
- 5.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.66CPOE+1.39
- 39.0%Third-down rate39.9%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.94Points / drive2.26
- 1.4%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.45
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.67