Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+7.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Cardinalsedge mapChiefs
- +0.139EPA / play+0.118
- 48.6%Success rate40.9%
- +0.270EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.044EPA / rush+0.259
- 5.6%Explosive rate9.1%
- +4.61CPOE-11.92
- 46.2%Third-down rate56.3%
- 40.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.35Points / drive2.57
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 5–2 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.39
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.61