Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapGiants
- +0.117EPA / play+0.027
- 46.8%Success rate42.9%
- +0.227EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.102
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.79CPOE-2.00
- 49.4%Third-down rate44.9%
- 71.6%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.62Points / drive2.15
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.82