Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-7.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapGiants
- +0.310EPA / play+0.363
- 59.3%Success rate59.1%
- +0.731EPA / dropback+0.667
- -0.053EPA / rush+0.059
- 16.7%Explosive rate6.1%
- +22.32CPOE+13.38
- 55.6%Third-down rate90.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 3.76Points / drive3.97
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-10.06
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-7.60