Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-9.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jetsedge mapChargers
- +0.126EPA / play-0.167
- 48.4%Success rate40.0%
- +0.338EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.360
- 10.9%Explosive rate5.5%
- +12.84CPOE-6.21
- 18.2%Third-down rate25.0%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.08Points / drive1.39
- 0.0%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-11.17
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-9.03