Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+1.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jetsedge mapChargers
- +0.011EPA / play-0.209
- 44.6%Success rate36.9%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.191
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.235
- 9.3%Explosive rate6.6%
- +5.33CPOE-5.83
- 37.1%Third-down rate33.8%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 1.91Points / drive1.22
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LAC are 4-8 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.64