Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-3.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapBears
- +0.310EPA / play+0.361
- 59.3%Success rate53.3%
- +0.731EPA / dropback+0.551
- -0.053EPA / rush+0.143
- 16.7%Explosive rate12.0%
- +22.32CPOE+16.58
- 55.6%Third-down rate71.4%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.76Points / drive4.19
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. CHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.75
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-3.29