Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapBears
- +0.117EPA / play+0.052
- 46.8%Success rate47.0%
- +0.227EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.79CPOE+5.30
- 49.4%Third-down rate44.6%
- 71.6%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 2.62Points / drive2.27
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.4 points. CHI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.32