Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+1.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapPackers
- +0.210EPA / play+0.010
- 49.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.338EPA / dropback+0.142
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.266
- 13.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.89CPOE-1.28
- 48.3%Third-down rate36.3%
- 70.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 3.19Points / drive1.96
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.68