Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
-10.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapPackers
- +0.300EPA / play-0.181
- 41.8%Success rate38.2%
- +0.597EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.438
- 14.5%Explosive rate13.2%
- +8.14CPOE-9.65
- 33.3%Third-down rate25.0%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 3.07Points / drive1.91
- 0.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 32.9 points. GB are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-12.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-9.96