Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+2.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapEagles
- -0.111EPA / play-0.096
- 42.1%Success rate37.7%
- -0.187EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.002EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.2%Explosive rate4.6%
- -3.59CPOE-2.40
- 38.6%Third-down rate36.2%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate73.9%
- 1.71Points / drive1.70
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.13