Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapEagles
- -0.063EPA / play-0.086
- 42.5%Success rate37.3%
- -0.130EPA / dropback-0.055
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.3%Explosive rate4.6%
- -4.20CPOE-3.23
- 40.1%Third-down rate36.6%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate77.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.84
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.18