Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+11.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Coltsedge mapEagles
- -0.225EPA / play+0.027
- 42.6%Success rate34.0%
- -0.409EPA / dropback+0.136
- +0.116EPA / rush-0.167
- 13.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- -5.06CPOE+0.87
- 30.0%Third-down rate42.9%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.99
- 3.7%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 4–3 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.1 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.30
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+10.96