Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+7.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapLions
- -0.141EPA / play-0.027
- 44.0%Success rate45.5%
- -0.152EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.072
- 4.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.39CPOE-2.91
- 33.3%Third-down rate38.5%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 0.99Points / drive2.20
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.40