Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+4.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapLions
- -0.124EPA / play+0.144
- 40.2%Success rate49.9%
- -0.123EPA / dropback+0.309
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.108
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.37CPOE+1.18
- 34.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
- 1.42Points / drive2.92
- 2.0%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 57.7 points. DET are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.21
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43