Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapBills
- +0.361EPA / play+0.300
- 53.3%Success rate41.8%
- +0.551EPA / dropback+0.597
- +0.143EPA / rush-0.263
- 12.0%Explosive rate14.5%
- +16.58CPOE+8.14
- 71.4%Third-down rate33.3%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 4.19Points / drive3.07
- 1.3%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.40