Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapBills
- +0.052EPA / play+0.175
- 47.0%Success rate49.0%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.296
- -0.082EPA / rush+0.013
- 9.6%Explosive rate12.5%
- +5.30CPOE+3.91
- 44.6%Third-down rate44.9%
- 51.9%Red-zone TD rate71.7%
- 2.27Points / drive3.13
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. BUF are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.89