Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+15.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Brownsedge mapGiants
- -0.206EPA / play+0.363
- 43.1%Success rate59.1%
- -0.257EPA / dropback+0.667
- -0.119EPA / rush+0.059
- 7.8%Explosive rate6.1%
- +10.32CPOE+13.38
- 12.5%Third-down rate90.0%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.11Points / drive3.97
- 3.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+13.26
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+15.48