Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+5.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jetsedge mapCardinals
- +0.126EPA / play+0.139
- 48.4%Success rate48.6%
- +0.338EPA / dropback+0.270
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.9%Explosive rate5.6%
- +12.84CPOE+4.61
- 18.2%Third-down rate46.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 2.08Points / drive2.35
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.61