Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jetsedge mapCardinals
- +0.011EPA / play-0.024
- 44.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.3%Explosive rate4.4%
- +5.33CPOE+0.50
- 37.1%Third-down rate38.2%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.91Points / drive1.84
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 4–3 since 1999
ARI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. ARI are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.51