Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapChargers
- +0.153EPA / play-0.231
- 52.5%Success rate35.9%
- +0.265EPA / dropback-0.210
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.262
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.63CPOE-4.44
- 51.0%Third-down rate34.6%
- 88.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.81Points / drive1.17
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.73
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.51