Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
-15.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
49ersedge mapChargers
- +0.190EPA / play-0.167
- 56.9%Success rate40.0%
- +0.227EPA / dropback-0.087
- +0.142EPA / rush-0.360
- 7.7%Explosive rate5.5%
- +0.77CPOE-6.21
- 58.3%Third-down rate25.0%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.98Points / drive1.39
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-17.29
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-15.07