Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+11.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Panthersedge mapSteelers
- +0.130EPA / play-0.251
- 47.1%Success rate33.8%
- +0.242EPA / dropback-0.251
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.252
- 11.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- +4.17CPOE+1.23
- 44.4%Third-down rate25.0%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.90Points / drive1.00
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.62