Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+3.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Panthersedge mapSteelers
- +0.019EPA / play-0.029
- 41.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.084EPA / rush+0.043
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.1%
- -0.58CPOE-1.45
- 39.3%Third-down rate36.8%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 2.15Points / drive1.79
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–0 since 1999
PIT have won 7 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. PIT are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22