Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Raidersedge mapCardinals
- +0.019EPA / play-0.024
- 43.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.252EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.6%Explosive rate4.4%
- -1.41CPOE+0.50
- 40.6%Third-down rate38.2%
- 55.6%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 2.49Points / drive1.84
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. ARI are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14