Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Vikingsedge mapJets
- +0.055EPA / play+0.126
- 37.7%Success rate48.4%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.125EPA / rush-0.038
- 3.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- -4.89CPOE+12.84
- 57.1%Third-down rate18.2%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.90Points / drive2.08
- 1.6%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.97