Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-0.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Vikingsedge mapJets
- -0.099EPA / play+0.011
- 36.7%Success rate44.6%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.148
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.39CPOE+5.33
- 38.6%Third-down rate37.1%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.65Points / drive1.91
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–3 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. NYJ are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.68
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.46