2026 · Week 17

Scheduled

Commanders

Washington

—@—

Jaguars

Jacksonville

EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

—

Total

—

Model margin

+5.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

—

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.124
  • 41.2%Success rate46.5%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.228
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.005
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.73CPOE+3.75
  • 32.2%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.66
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 6–1 since 1999

WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1JAX @ WAS22–28WAS
2018 · W15WAS @ JAX16–13WAS
2014 · W2JAX @ WAS10–41WAS
2010 · W16WAS @ JAX20–17WAS
2006 · W4JAX @ WAS30–36WAS
2002 · W10WAS @ JAX7–26JAX
2000 · W8WAS @ JAX35–16WAS

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.63