2026 · Week 17
Scheduled
EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+14.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Commandersedge mapJaguars
- +0.073EPA / play+0.310
- 43.5%Success rate59.3%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.731
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.053
- 4.3%Explosive rate16.7%
- -3.44CPOE+22.32
- 33.3%Third-down rate55.6%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.99Points / drive3.76
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 6–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+12.02
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+14.24