1999 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

25·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Doug Pederson

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 75°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

37

Model margin

+4.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

6.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.176EPA / play-0.192
  • 35.9%Success rate33.4%
  • -0.148EPA / dropback-0.199
  • -0.226EPA / rush-0.181
  • 5.9%Explosive rate6.4%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate31.2%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
  • 0.87Points / drive0.90
  • 3.8%Turnover rate3.6%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.098

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
ARIQ1 13:0735Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:28759Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 7:5330Punt0–7
PHIQ1 7:21412Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 6:0748Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 4:2342Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 2:3810Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 2:2723Touchdown0–14
ARIQ1 2:1934Turnover0–14
PHIQ1 1:19216Touchdown0–21
ARIQ1 0:161360Field goal3–21
PHIQ2 8:1132Turnover3–21
ARIQ2 6:4133Field goal6–21
PHIQ2 5:15614Punt6–21
ARIQ2 2:35621Punt6–21
PHIQ2 1:3534Punt6–21
ARIQ2 0:55410Turnover6–21
PHIQ2 0:2430Field goal6–24
ARIQ3 15:001359Touchdown12–24
PHIQ3 9:02727Punt12–24
ARIQ3 7:041684Field goal15–24
PHIQ4 14:533-2Punt15–24
ARIQ4 13:4334Punt15–24
PHIQ4 12:45635Punt15–24
ARIQ4 9:273-9Punt15–24
PHIQ4 8:0334Punt15–24
ARIQ4 6:26665Touchdown22–24
PHIQ4 4:03518Turnover22–24
ARIQ4 1:49532Field goal25–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer25/4827413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Murrell24532.20
Jake Plummer6254.20
Mario Bates461.51
David Boston111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Moore38771
Frank Sanders516500
Terry Hardy56490
Adrian Murrell55470
Michael Pittman24260
David Boston46210

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson12/269122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley211115.31
Doug Pederson22110.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Broughton35291
Charles Johnson36240
Duce Staley38191
Brian Finneran13100
Dietrich Jells2290
Torrance Small0100
Jed Weaver0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

6.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.51