Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
37
Model margin
+4.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.176EPA / play-0.192
- 35.9%Success rate33.4%
- -0.148EPA / dropback-0.199
- -0.226EPA / rush-0.181
- 5.9%Explosive rate6.4%
- 33.3%Third-down rate31.2%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 0.87Points / drive0.90
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 25/48 | 274 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Murrell | 24 | 53 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| David Boston | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Moore | 3 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 16 | 50 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Adrian Murrell | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| David Boston | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 12/26 | 91 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 21 | 111 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Doug Pederson | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Broughton | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Charles Johnson | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 8 | 19 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
6.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51