Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.010EPA / play+0.072
- 40.3%Success rate41.4%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.59Points / drive1.88
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.138EPA / play allowed-0.036
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 22/42 | 300 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 10 | 16 | 147 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 4 | 9 | 39 | 1 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Thurman Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin R. Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/33 | 284 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 112 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.G. Green | 5 | 8 | 124 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 13 | 121 | 2 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60