Closing spread
IND -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.140EPA / play+0.059
- 37.8%Success rate48.0%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.097
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -7.12CPOE+0.63
- 32.3%Third-down rate50.5%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.26Points / drive2.25
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 20/31 | 175 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 17/23 | 156 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 19 | 126 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 4 | 25 | 2 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.84