2018 · Week 7

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Derek Anderson

5·37

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapColts
  • -0.140EPA / play+0.059
  • 37.8%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.097
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -7.12CPOE+0.63
  • 32.3%Third-down rate50.5%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.26Points / drive2.25
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF
2006 · W10BUF @ IND16–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–IND
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BUFQ1 13:11830Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:3036Punt0–0
BUFQ1 6:5034Punt0–0
INDQ1 5:241485Touchdown0–6
BUFQ2 13:31549Turnover0–6
INDQ2 10:54460Touchdown0–14
BUFQ2 9:25318Punt0–14
INDQ2 7:161072Touchdown0–21
BUFQ2 1:41527Turnover0–21
INDQ2 0:13214Field goal0–24
BUFQ3 15:001156Field goal3–24
INDQ3 7:42938Punt3–24
BUFQ3 2:39525Punt5–24
INDQ3 0:2510Safety5–24
BUFQ3 0:2032Turnover5–24
INDQ4 14:4432Touchdown5–31
BUFQ4 13:13758Turnover on downs5–31
INDQ4 10:53835Punt5–31
BUFQ4 6:1125Turnover5–37
INDQ4 5:32120Touchdown5–37
BUFQ4 5:26429Turnover5–37
INDQ4 4:13339Turnover on downs5–37

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson20/3117503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory16815.10
Marcus Murphy45313.30
LeSean McCoy210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin45710
Zay Jones35270
Chris Ivory36250
Marcus Murphy56170
Charles Clay35140
Andre Holmes12130
Jason Croom1280

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck17/2315640

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marlon Mack191266.61
Nyheim Hines5479.40
Jordan Wilkins6467.70
Andrew Luck351.70
Jacoby Brissett4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chester Rogers44400
Marlon Mack23331
Eric Ebron37310
T.Y. Hilton44252
Erik Swoope11171
Jordan Wilkins1180
Mo Alie-Cox1170
Nyheim Hines12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.84