2020 · WC

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

24·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 34°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBills
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.169
  • 46.8%Success rate50.4%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.081
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -0.03CPOE+6.29
  • 39.7%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.78
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF
2006 · W10BUF @ IND16–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BUF
INDQ1 15:00935Punt0–0
BUFQ1 10:3837Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:08752Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 5:29885Touchdown3–7
INDQ1 1:49416Punt3–7
BUFQ1 0:1237Punt3–7
INDQ2 13:34965Touchdown10–7
BUFQ2 8:0739Punt10–7
INDQ2 6:08855Turnover on downs10–7
BUFQ2 1:461191Touchdown10–14
INDQ2 0:1400End of half10–14
BUFQ3 15:00844Field goal10–17
INDQ3 11:051360Missed field goal10–17
BUFQ3 3:32977Touchdown10–24
INDQ4 14:10775Touchdown16–24
BUFQ4 11:32639Field goal16–27
INDQ4 8:08576Touchdown24–27
BUFQ4 6:13838Punt24–27
INDQ4 2:301339Turnover on downs24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers27/4630920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor21783.71
Nyheim Hines67512.50
Michael Pittman11111.00
Jacoby Brissett100.00
Philip Rivers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman510900
Jack Doyle79701
Zach Pascal35371
Trey Burton33340
T.Y. Hilton25320
Mo Alie-Cox44320
Nyheim Hines1380
Jonathan Taylor2460

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen26/3532420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Allen11544.91
Devin Singletary3217.00
Zack Moss7213.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs691281
Gabe Davis44850
Cole Beasley77570
Zack Moss44260
Devin Singletary33230
Dawson Knox2351
John Brown0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.65