Closing spread
BUF -7
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.169
- 46.8%Success rate50.4%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.081
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.03CPOE+6.29
- 39.7%Third-down rate49.9%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 2.35Points / drive2.78
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 27/46 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 78 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 6 | 75 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 10 | 90 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 7 | 9 | 70 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 26/35 | 324 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 9 | 128 | 1 |
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 4 | 85 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| John Brown | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.65