2012 · Week 12

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

13·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -2

Total

51

Model margin

+3.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapColts
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.035
  • 42.3%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -1.57CPOE-4.46
  • 39.8%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.62
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF
2006 · W10BUF @ IND16–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–IND
INDQ1 15:00724Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:143-4Opp touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 9:561160Field goal3–7
INDQ1 4:28930Punt3–7
BUFQ1 0:17515Punt3–7
INDQ2 13:2220Turnover3–7
BUFQ2 13:10520Punt3–7
INDQ2 10:111182Field goal3–10
BUFQ2 4:08467Field goal6–10
INDQ2 2:16839Punt6–10
BUFQ2 0:5834Punt6–10
INDQ2 0:32427Field goal6–13
BUFQ3 15:00715Punt6–13
INDQ3 12:061579Touchdown6–20
BUFQ3 4:0238Punt6–20
INDQ3 3:1735Punt6–20
BUFQ3 1:06878Touchdown13–20
INDQ4 11:3033Punt13–20
BUFQ4 9:31839Turnover13–20
BUFQ4 4:3132Punt13–20
INDQ4 3:22726End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick17/3318011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller141077.60
Fred Jackson6162.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson6151060
Scott Chandler23260
Trevor Graham23240
Donald Jones46190
Fred Jackson1180
Lee Smith1111
Dorin Dickerson0100
C.J. Spiller13-40

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck20/3724011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard13413.20
Donald Brown10262.60
Andrew Luck6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne8141020
Dwayne Allen36360
T.Y. Hilton33331
Donnie Avery38310
Donald Brown11230
LaVon Brazill11110
Weslye Saunders1240
Vick Ballard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.98