Closing spread
IND -2
Total
51
Model margin
+3.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.035
- 42.3%Success rate45.1%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- -1.57CPOE-4.46
- 39.8%Third-down rate42.3%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.58Points / drive1.62
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 17/33 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 14 | 107 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 6 | 15 | 106 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 20/37 | 240 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 14 | 102 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.98