2009 · Week 17

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

7·30

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 12°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -9

Total

32.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

1.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBills
  • +0.127EPA / play-0.125
  • 48.9%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.241EPA / dropback-0.122
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.129
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +4.60CPOE-1.89
  • 48.9%Third-down rate26.3%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.20
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2006 · W10BUF @ IND16–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:5633Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 12:23641Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 9:251272Touchdown7–7
BUFQ1 3:5232Punt7–7
INDQ1 2:21617Punt7–7
BUFQ2 14:13927Punt7–7
INDQ2 9:1330Punt7–7
BUFQ2 7:48551Touchdown7–14
INDQ2 5:02413Turnover7–14
BUFQ2 3:16250Touchdown7–21
INDQ2 2:2810Turnover7–21
BUFQ2 2:181044Field goal7–24
INDQ2 0:142-2End of half7–24
INDQ3 15:00620Turnover on downs7–24
BUFQ3 12:07744Field goal7–27
INDQ3 7:32413Punt7–27
BUFQ3 5:341072Field goal7–30
INDQ3 0:14517Punt7–30
BUFQ4 12:4833Punt7–30
INDQ4 11:093-3Punt7–30
BUFQ4 9:38739Punt7–30
INDQ4 4:2637Punt7–30
BUFQ4 3:37328End of half7–30

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning14/189501
Curtis Painter4/173901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Hart10282.81
Curtis Painter210.50
Donald Brown4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Clark78520
Reggie Wayne57210
Jacob Tamme14210
Mike Hart24160
Austin Collie14150
Hank Baskett1570
Colin Cloherty1120
Samuel Giguere0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/2515530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson332126.40
Ryan Fitzpatrick177.00
Marshawn Lynch100.00
Brian Brohm3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens48651
Lee Evans46491
Fred Jackson22151
Jonathan Stupar23130
Joe Klopfenstein12110
Marshawn Lynch1220
Shawn Nelson1110
Roscoe Parrish11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +92.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.50