Closing spread
BUF -9
Total
32.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play-0.125
- 48.9%Success rate38.0%
- +0.241EPA / dropback-0.122
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.129
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- +4.60CPOE-1.89
- 48.9%Third-down rate26.3%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate45.2%
- 2.29Points / drive1.20
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/18 | 95 | 0 | 1 |
| Curtis Painter | 4/17 | 39 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hart | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Curtis Painter | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Hank Baskett | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Colin Cloherty | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Samuel Giguere | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/25 | 155 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 33 | 212 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Brohm | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 4 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Joe Klopfenstein | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50