Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.186EPA / play-0.045
- 47.8%Success rate40.6%
- +0.298EPA / dropback-0.025
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.64CPOE-5.38
- 45.6%Third-down rate37.8%
- 75.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.90Points / drive1.87
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/37 | 280 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Ray Davis | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| James Cook | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 26/35 | 272 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 114 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 7 | 81 | 1 |
| Josh Downs | 7 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 6 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94