2024 · Week 10

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

30·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapColts
  • +0.186EPA / play-0.045
  • 47.8%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.298EPA / dropback-0.025
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.64CPOE-5.38
  • 45.6%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 75.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.87
  • 0.8%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF
2006 · W10BUF @ IND16–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–IND
BUFQ1 15:00421Punt6–0
INDQ1 12:2410Opp touchdown7–0
INDQ1 12:14731Turnover7–0
BUFQ1 9:06842Field goal10–0
INDQ1 5:33561Field goal10–3
BUFQ1 3:31942Turnover on downs10–3
INDQ1 0:081267Touchdown10–10
BUFQ2 9:2210Turnover10–10
INDQ2 9:12433Field goal10–13
BUFQ2 6:32875Touchdown17–13
INDQ2 2:1439Punt17–13
BUFQ2 1:10765Field goal20–13
INDQ3 15:0032Punt20–13
BUFQ3 12:48713Punt20–13
INDQ3 9:28748Turnover20–13
BUFQ3 5:3610Turnover20–13
INDQ3 5:29710Turnover on downs20–13
BUFQ3 2:451260Field goal23–13
INDQ4 10:58325Turnover23–13
BUFQ4 9:461698Touchdown30–13
INDQ4 3:041275Touchdown30–20
BUFQ4 0:0200End of half30–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen22/3728002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook19804.21
Josh Allen8506.31
Ray Davis362.00
Mitchell Trubisky1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins44860
Khalil Shakir69580
Dawson Knox23400
Curtis Samuel48350
Ty Johnson33320
Dalton Kincaid25240
James Cook1350

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco26/3527223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor211145.40
Ashton Dulin177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce47811
Josh Downs710720
Adonai Mitchell66710
Kylen Granson22150
Will Mallory11100
Tyler Goodson2391
Jonathan Taylor2480
Trey Sermon1140
Andrew Ogletree1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.94