2015 · Week 1

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

14·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Tyrod Taylor

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · a_turf · 56°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBills
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.025
  • 40.1%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.023EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.039
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -4.10CPOE+2.97
  • 40.5%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.83
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF
2006 · W10BUF @ IND16–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BUF
INDQ1 15:00832Punt0–0
BUFQ1 11:15520Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:03416Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:12629Punt0–0
INDQ1 4:05542Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 2:39568Punt0–7
INDQ1 15:00723Punt0–7
BUFQ2 11:11643Field goal0–10
INDQ2 7:491136Missed field goal0–10
BUFQ2 2:42668Touchdown0–17
INDQ2 0:2000End of half0–17
BUFQ3 15:001175Touchdown0–24
INDQ3 9:341962Touchdown8–24
BUFQ3 0:5443Punt8–24
INDQ4 13:2530Punt8–24
BUFQ4 11:21414Punt8–24
BUFQ4 9:443-1Field goal8–27
INDQ4 8:14980Touchdown14–27
BUFQ4 5:56627Punt14–27
INDQ4 2:36614Turnover14–27
BUFQ4 1:5200End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck26/4924322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore8313.90
Andrew Luck4205.00
Josh Robinson4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton714880
Donte Moncrief611461
Phillip Dorsett23450
Andre Johnson410240
Dwayne Allen36171
Coby Fleener1150
Frank Gore2300

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor14/1919510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Karlos Williams6559.21
LeSean McCoy17412.40
Tyrod Taylor9414.60
Percy Harvin199.00
Anthony Dixon310.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin55791
LeSean McCoy34460
Charles Clay44430
Robert Woods22270
Sammy Watkins0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.09