Closing spread
IND -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.025
- 40.1%Success rate40.7%
- -0.023EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.206EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- -4.10CPOE+2.97
- 40.5%Third-down rate38.1%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate65.3%
- 1.47Points / drive1.83
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 26/49 | 243 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Robinson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 7 | 14 | 88 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 6 | 11 | 46 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 10 | 24 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 14/19 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlos Williams | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.09