2017 · Week 14

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

7·13

Bills

Buffalo

QB Nathan Peterman

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 32°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBills
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.071
  • 38.7%Success rate39.0%
  • -0.102EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.115EPA / rush-0.135
  • 6.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.56CPOE-0.28
  • 38.0%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.47
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF
2006 · W10BUF @ IND16–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BUF
BUFQ1 15:001032Turnover on downs0–0
INDQ1 9:431147Missed field goal0–0
BUFQ1 2:21619Punt0–0
INDQ2 12:4435Punt0–0
BUFQ2 10:43617Turnover on downs0–0
INDQ2 8:15730Punt0–0
BUFQ2 3:3333Punt0–0
INDQ2 2:0738Punt0–0
BUFQ2 1:42559Touchdown0–7
INDQ2 0:2700End of half0–7
INDQ3 15:0035Punt0–7
BUFQ3 13:03619Punt0–7
INDQ3 8:57518Punt0–7
BUFQ3 6:0136Punt0–7
INDQ3 4:1530Punt0–7
BUFQ3 3:11225Turnover0–7
INDQ3 2:23719Turnover on downs0–7
BUFQ4 14:41619Punt0–7
INDQ4 11:092172Touchdown7–7
BUFQ4 1:1620Turnover7–7
INDQ4 0:5213Missed field goal7–7
BUFQ4 0:0100End of half7–7
BUFOT935Punt7–7
INDOT521Punt7–7
BUFOT665Touchdown7–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett11/226910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore361303.60
Marlon Mack7233.30
Jacoby Brissett3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marlon Mack23210
T.Y. Hilton24200
Frank Gore11100
Brandon Williams2380
Chester Rogers2460
Jack Doyle2341
Ross Travis0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nathan Peterman4/93610
Joe Webb2/63501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy321564.91
Joe Webb5275.40
Nathan Peterman4102.50
Travaris Cadet420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deonte Thompson11340
Kelvin Benjamin27171
Charles Clay25110
Nick O'Leary1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.79