Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.071
- 38.7%Success rate39.0%
- -0.102EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.135
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.56CPOE-0.28
- 38.0%Third-down rate42.2%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate52.1%
- 1.22Points / drive1.47
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 11/22 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 36 | 130 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Ross Travis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Peterman | 4/9 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 2/6 | 35 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 32 | 156 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Joe Webb | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 7 | 17 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.79