Closing spread
BUF -7.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.091
- 44.6%Success rate47.4%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.048
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.41CPOE+1.95
- 41.9%Third-down rate47.6%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 2.35Points / drive2.52
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 11/20 | 106 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 32 | 185 | 5.8 | 4 |
| Nyheim Hines | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Sam Ehlinger | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dezmon Patmon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 21/35 | 209 | 2 | 2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3/5 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 5 | 51 | 10.2 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 6 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 23 | 2 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tommy Sweeney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.78