2021 · Week 11

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

41·15

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 49°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -7.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBills
  • +0.060EPA / play+0.091
  • 44.6%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.164
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.048
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.41CPOE+1.95
  • 41.9%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.52
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF
2006 · W10BUF @ IND16–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BUF
INDQ1 15:001165Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 8:55947Turnover7–0
INDQ1 3:58557Touchdown14–0
BUFQ1 1:381173Touchdown14–7
INDQ2 10:441549Field goal17–7
BUFQ2 2:1200Touchdown23–7
INDQ2 2:0312Touchdown24–7
BUFQ2 1:59741Missed field goal24–7
BUFQ3 15:0030Punt24–7
INDQ3 14:251029Punt24–7
BUFQ3 10:42644Missed field goal24–7
INDQ3 8:13561Touchdown31–7
BUFQ3 5:2732Turnover31–7
INDQ3 4:29623Touchdown38–7
BUFQ3 0:581077Touchdown38–15
INDQ4 12:42963Field goal41–15
BUFQ4 6:23519Turnover41–15
INDQ4 4:49721Turnover on downs41–15
BUFQ4 0:2218End of half41–15

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz11/2010610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor321855.84
Nyheim Hines4317.80
Carson Wentz2189.00
Deon Jackson6122.00
Zach Pascal199.00
Sam Ehlinger199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle35300
T.Y. Hilton22260
Michael Pittman25230
Jonathan Taylor33191
Kylen Granson1280
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Zach Pascal0100
Dezmon Patmon0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen21/3520922
Mitchell Trubisky3/51901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida55110.20
Josh Allen2189.00
Devin Singletary3175.70
Zack Moss351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dawson Knox610800
Gabe Davis24270
Emmanuel Sanders35260
Devin Singletary34260
Cole Beasley45230
Stefon Diggs46232
Matt Breida12160
Reggie Gilliam1170
Tommy Sweeney0100
Zack Moss0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.78