1999 · Week 1 · Division

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

41·35

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

+3.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.098
  • 39.6%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.079EPA / rush+0.036
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 34.8%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.78
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:00830Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:26975Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 5:58572Field goal7–3
DALQ1 3:371068Touchdown14–3
WASQ2 14:55553Touchdown14–10
DALQ2 12:3833Punt14–10
WASQ2 10:57458Turnover14–10
DALQ2 8:53517Turnover14–10
WASQ2 5:5143Field goal14–13
DALQ2 4:1247Punt14–13
WASQ2 1:55763Turnover14–13
DALQ2 0:2700End of half14–13
DALQ3 15:00726Turnover14–13
WASQ3 10:45735Touchdown14–21
DALQ3 7:5830Punt14–21
WASQ3 7:24961Touchdown14–28
DALQ3 2:5935Punt14–28
WASQ3 1:50252Touchdown14–35
DALQ3 1:041169Touchdown21–35
WASQ4 10:4300Turnover on downs21–35
DALQ4 10:43731Turnover on downs21–35
WASQ4 7:5736Punt21–35
DALQ4 6:15666Touchdown28–35
WASQ4 3:51432Punt28–35
DALQ4 3:011280Touchdown35–35
WASQ4 1:4630Punt35–35
DALQ4 1:2233Turnover35–35
WASQ4 0:49516End of half35–35
WASOT623Punt35–35
DALOT592Touchdown41–35

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman28/4936253

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith231094.71
Chris Warren8587.30
Raghib Ismail11515.00
Troy Aikman242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail8141491
Michael Irvin5111222
David LaFleur47412
Ernie Mills34240
Eric Bjornson11130
Jeff Ogden1280
Daryl Johnston1240
Chris Warren1240
Wane McGarity0200
Emmitt Smith44-30

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson20/3338220
Brett Conway0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis241094.52
Brian Mitchell3124.00
Albert Connell188.00
Skip Hicks144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook571591
Albert Connell451371
Irving Fryar34340
Stephen Alexander1150
Stephen Davis1250
James Jenkins0100
Brian Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.18