1999 · Week 1 · Division
Final / OT
Jack Kent Cooke Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.098
- 39.6%Success rate44.4%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.079EPA / rush+0.036
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- 34.8%Third-down rate36.2%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.25Points / drive1.78
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 28/49 | 362 | 5 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 23 | 109 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chris Warren | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 8 | 14 | 149 | 1 |
| Michael Irvin | 5 | 11 | 122 | 2 |
| David LaFleur | 4 | 7 | 41 | 2 |
| Ernie Mills | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Eric Bjornson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Daryl Johnston | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 4 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/33 | 382 | 2 | 0 |
| Brett Conway | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 109 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 5 | 7 | 159 | 1 |
| Albert Connell | 4 | 5 | 137 | 1 |
| Irving Fryar | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| James Jenkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.18