Closing spread
BUF -4
Total
42
Model margin
+7.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.010
- 38.9%Success rate40.3%
- +0.047EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.195
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.9%
- 34.6%Third-down rate41.4%
- 40.9%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.28Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.138
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Mirer | 13/28 | 121 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rick Mirer | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Quinn Early | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Blake Spence | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Dwight Stone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Flutie | 15/25 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 30 | 113 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Doug Flutie | 7 | 67 | 9.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin R. Williams | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.54