1999 · Week 2
Final
Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 69°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.149EPA / play-0.192
- 35.1%Success rate33.4%
- -0.110EPA / dropback-0.199
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.181
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.4%
- 35.3%Third-down rate31.2%
- 37.2%Red-zone TD rate46.7%
- 1.03Points / drive0.90
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.6%
- -0.164EPA / play allowed-0.098
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 7/14 | 89 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 24 | 82 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Moore | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Yo Murphy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 12/19 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4/11 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Dameane Douglas | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dietrich Jells | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.49